Taken from the August edition of The Trumpit, an issue that concerns us all, especially in the light of new government proposals re planning. How much do we really value our open spaces?
A Failure of Policy
In March 2019’s edition I wrote The March of the Developers referring to the house building orgy taking place here in North Bradford. We now live in different times and, like many, I have benefitted from the beauty locally with a refreshed appreciation of my surroundings through lockdown.
Indeed, Born in Bradford, a major research programme tracking the lives of 30,000 residents, identified a series of key findings including improving access and availability of greenspace to enhance physical and mental health.
However, a feature of the last decade has been the carnage inflicted by new house building on our open spaces. In Bradford this has been overseen by the guiding Core Strategy targeting some 42,100 new houses to be built from 2013-30. Because councils must demonstrate a five-year available supply of housing land, Bradford Council have been hung by their own ineptitude in setting such a wildly inaccurate and unachievable target.
Drilling For The Facts
Consequently, local sites, refused planning permission by the Council on several occasions, were approved subsequently by a Government inspector on this very point alone. The target is now under downward review; however, do not expect much to change quickly with the new policy not set to be adopted until 2022.
Attempting to get underneath this subject is far from easy; councils are masters at producing gargantuan reports which a cynic might claim serve merely as smokescreens. National planning policy is an even more complex issue. Bradford recently published an external report – Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 (SHMA) – a gentle 216 page read; I will try to pick out a few salient points.
Firstly, it is acknowledged that the previous annual target of just over 2,500 new builds was folly, as many of us have argued. Yet, for years developers have filled their boots assisted by weak planning, successive compliant Governments and cheap money. Why they hung their hats on such a number is hard to fathom as, in the period 2004-18, average annual completions were only half at 1,261. Only once in that period (2006/7) did the Council exceed its own target. So, what of any future target?
Number Crunching
The report considers numerous factors, not least population growth which is predicted to increase from 537k (2018) to 550k (2037). According to a council document, Bradford’s population is projected to increase at a slower rate than both West Yorkshire (4.1% by 2026 and 8.2% by 2041) and England (1% by 2026 and 6.9% by 2041).
With regards to housing, local policy clearly follows national and the revision is down to a shift in policy. However, it will still target 1,703 new homes a year, a figure only achieved in three of the 14 years to 2018. This would amount to almost 29,000 new homes, an increase in the overall stock of 14%.
But if population is only anticipated to grow by only 2.4% there still appears a mismatch. How they arrive at this figure is a complex calculation combining predicted increases in existing households – increased or decreased – by an “affordability adjustment”. In simple terms, as far as Bradford is concerned, because it is cheaper to live here than, say Leeds, our housing requirement is boosted by circa 7%.
The Next Plan
Another factor to consider is what will be built? The report suggests a mix of 56% (one and two-bedrooms) and 44% (three and four). Consistent with England, the 65+ population is forecast to increase by 40% in the period, up by 32,000; policy must surely reflect this. North Bradford is a desirable area for developers albeit the outlying areas – Bingley and Wharfedale – are the real jewels in the crown.
In contrast, the report demonstrates nationally and regionally, how poorly Bradford fares in terms of average earnings and house prices. Indeed, the report demonstrates that median house prices (2018) in Bradford (£131,000) are well behind Leeds (£172,500) and England (£230,000. It is not unreasonable to conclude that £400k houses in BD10 may not have your average Bradfordian in mind on several counts.
So where next for the developers locally? The Strategic Housing Land Availability document (SHLAA 2015) remains in place for now. As at 31/3/18 there had only been 774 completions against a target of 4,400 for Bradford East – these are the most recent figures available for net completions between 2013-2018.
According to a source: “The new plan period…will be 2020-2037 with a target of 2000 for the North East area…determined in part by the available land supply…and some acknowledgement to the number of new homes delivered since 2013. Contributions to the new target will include sites which are still under construction with remaining units and unstarted sites with planning permission at 1st April 2020. The remaining part of the target will be made up from sites which will be published for consultation in the coming months.”
Leave a Reply